According to @TO, Satoshi’s BTC is held across about 22,000 different private keys with no seed phrases or exposed public keys, and quantum computing will not break them, which he presents as a security assurance for long-term holders and traders (source: https://twitter.com/TO/status/1988382753340182907). Independent on-chain research by Sergio Demian Lerner estimates the Patoshi miner accumulated roughly 1.1 million BTC across tens of thousands of coinbase outputs in 2009–2010, consistent with a very large number of distinct keys that have remained dormant (source: https://bitslog.com/2019/04/17/the-return-of-the-dld-patoshi/). Early Bitcoin wallets did not use hierarchical deterministic seeds because BIP32 was standardized only in 2012, after Satoshi’s departure, implying non-deterministic keys rather than seed phrases (sources: https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0032.mediawiki, https://bitcoin.org/en/developer-guide#wallets-keys). However, not all early outputs hide public keys: many 2009 coinbase outputs used pay-to-public-key scripts that reveal public keys on-chain, whereas P2PKH hides the key until spending, which is relevant for any quantum-security assessment (source: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Transaction#Standard_transaction_types). Current cryptographic research indicates breaking Bitcoin’s secp256k1 ECDSA would require large, fault-tolerant quantum computers far beyond today’s capabilities, so brute-force or quantum attacks are not a practical near-term threat for traders to price in (sources: https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.06752, https://www.nist.gov/pqc). For trading strategy, the persistence of dormant Patoshi-pattern coins implies minimal immediate sell-pressure risk from these holdings, while any on-chain movement of such coinbase outputs would be a high-impact signal to monitor (source: https://bitslog.com/2019/04/17/the-return-of-the-dld-patoshi/).

According to the source, the fiat value of Satoshi’s estimated BTC holdings fell by over $20B during the latest drawdown, but this does not imply coins were sold, only a mark-to-market change (source: the source). Independent on-chain research estimates Satoshi mined roughly 1.1 million BTC via the Patoshi pattern, defining the scale of valuation swings for any BTC price move (source: Sergio Demian Lerner, Bitslog; Chainalysis). No verified spends from Patoshi-tagged addresses have been detected, indicating no realized selling pressure from those coins during recent volatility (source: Bitslog; Glassnode on-chain research). For traders, the constructive BTC thesis rests on structural supply tightness and external demand rather than fears of Satoshi supply: the 2024 halving reduced issuance to about 3.125 BTC per block, or roughly 450 BTC per day, tightening new supply (source: Bitcoin protocol and Bitcoin Core documentation). US spot Bitcoin ETFs showed persistent net inflows through 2024, providing a buy-side buffer into weakness (source: Farside Investors ETF flow data, 2024). Near term, focus on leverage and liquidity indicators—funding rates, open interest, and ETF net flows—as likely reversal catalysts, since dormant Patoshi coins are not adding sell pressure (source: Glassnode derivatives metrics research; CME futures market data).

According to the source, on-chain research by Sergio Demian Lerner identifies about 1.1 million BTC mined by Satoshi in 2009 to 2010 that remain unspent, known as the Patoshi pattern, as documented on Bitslog and corroborated by Chainalysis and Glassnode. At recent BTC market prices, the implied value exceeds 100 billion dollars, according to CoinMarketCap spot data. Glassnode’s studies show that spikes in revived supply older than one year often coincide with higher BTC volatility and drawdowns, indicating that any movement from Patoshi-linked coinbase outputs could materially shift market sentiment and liquidity. Traders monitor these risks by tracking Patoshi-pattern addresses and revived supply metrics using the datasets and heuristics published by Bitslog, Chainalysis, Glassnode, and OXT Research.

According to the source, a social post claims Satoshi’s BTC wallet is now worth over $135B and would rank among the top 10 global fortunes (source: public social post dated Oct 5, 2025). However, no single Satoshi wallet has been identified by rigorous on-chain research, and early-mined coins attributed via the Patoshi pattern are estimated around 1.1 million BTC distributed across many addresses (source: Sergio Demian Lerner – The Patoshi Mining Machine, bitslog.com). Rich-list data shows the largest individual BTC addresses are exchange or custody wallets and do not approach a 1.1 million BTC balance (source: BitInfoCharts Bitcoin Rich List). For trading, the material signal is movement from Patoshi-era coins, which in past instances coincided with heightened market volatility and media attention (source: Chainalysis Blog analysis of the May 2020 movement of 50 BTC from 2009-era coins). Traders can monitor dormant supply and coin days destroyed to detect aging UTXO activity that can precede market swings (source: Glassnode Academy – Coin Days Destroyed and Dormancy). Set alerts on early-mined address clusters and track flows to exchanges to manage gap risk around sudden BTC supply changes (source: Arkham Intelligence platform features and Glassnode Alerts).

According to the source, Satoshi Nakamoto’s net worth is claimed to be back above $130 billion with none of his BTC spent; independent on-chain research attributes roughly 1.0–1.1 million BTC to early Satoshi-era mining and shows no confirmed spends from the Patoshi set after 2010 (Sergio Demian Lerner, 2013; 2019). For traders, continued dormancy of these coins reduces effective circulating float and can intensify upside moves when demand rises, a dynamic supported by analyses of illiquid supply growth and falling exchange balances (Glassnode Research, 2020–2023). Confirmation of any supply-driven price impact should be monitored via exchange reserves and UTXO age-band activity to gauge potential sell pressure or liquidity tightness (Glassnode Research; CryptoQuant).